Nikki Haley engages in a one-on-one confrontation with Donald Trump in New Hampshire.
With Ron DeSantis announcing the suspension of his presidential campaign on Sunday, Nikki Haley now finds herself in the long-awaited one-on-one match-up with Donald Trump.
Reflecting on the journey of the campaign, she remarked in a fundraising email sent shortly after the news of DeSantis’ withdrawal, “At one point in this campaign, there were 14 of us running. But today, it’s officially a two-person race between me and Donald Trump!”
However, Haley’s showdown with Trump in the state-by-state contest to select a Republican presidential candidate may not unfold exactly as she anticipated. The recent thinning of the 14-person field has predominantly played into the former president’s favor.
Initially, DeSantis surpassed Haley for second place in Iowa’s caucuses, denying her a significant momentum boost heading into the New Hampshire primary. Following Trump’s significant victory in Iowa, another presidential rival, Vivek Ramaswamy, withdrew from the race and threw his support behind Trump, generating additional headlines for the former president.
Now, with DeSantis out of the picture, things have taken an unexpected turn. Like Ramaswamy, DeSantis has endorsed Trump, albeit with less enthusiasm. The Florida governor directed most of his criticism towards Haley, branding her as part of “the old Republican guard of yesteryear – a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism.” This line of attack aligns with Trump’s recent criticism of Haley as an elite-loving globalist.
It took six days for the DeSantis campaign to navigate through the stages of political grief and accept his withdrawal. However, the timing and manner of his exit might have inadvertently contributed to securing Trump’s victory. Public opinion surveys indicate that a majority of DeSantis supporters consider Trump as their next best option, implying that DeSantis’s withdrawal could ultimately benefit the former president.
A recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released on Sunday revealed that 62% of DeSantis backers in the state named Trump as their second choice, while only 30% chose Haley. These numbers pose a challenge for the former South Carolina governor, who has been focusing on New Hampshire as the pivotal battleground to seriously challenge Trump.
Haley’s strategy was theoretically sound, considering the state’s open primary, allowing independent voters and moderates to influence the outcome. With a population boasting a higher percentage of college graduates, one of Haley’s strong demographics, she has witnessed a rise in support in recent months as the clear alternative for those opposed to Trump.
Described as a throwback to a pre-Trump era in the Republican Party, Haley’s campaign emphasizes compromise, avoids grievance politics, and rejects conspiracy theories. She also supports ongoing U.S. funding for the Ukraine war. However, not aligning with Trump and delivering a more moderate message may not be sufficient.
The critical test for Haley comes in New Hampshire on Tuesday. If she fails to surpass Trump, the challenge of securing victory elsewhere, even in her South Carolina home where Trump enjoys immense popularity, becomes increasingly daunting. Anti-Trump Republicans have long lamented the division within the party, expressing the hope that unity behind a single candidate would make victory achievable. In New Hampshire, on Tuesday, this theory will finally be put to the test.
