Saudi Arabia Keeps Open the Possibility of Establishing Ties with Israel, but Potential Costs Loom

Weeks prior to the October 7 assault by Hamas on Israel, Saudi Arabia indicated a growing proximity to normalizing diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. Despite a conflict resulting in over 23,000 Palestinian casualties and heightened tensions in the Arab world, Riyadh suggests that recognizing Israel remains a possibility.

During a recent diplomatic tour across the Middle East, including stops in Saudi Arabia and Israel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted that talks on normalization persist. Blinken stated, “There’s a clear interest here in pursuing that. This interest is real, and it could be transformative.”

In an interview with the BBC, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the UK, Prince Khalid bin Bandar, affirmed the interest in normalization, stating that this interest has existed since 1982. However, experts anticipate that the price for Saudi Arabia’s normalization may be higher post-Gaza war, with Riyadh potentially seeking more concessions from the US and Israel.

While Blinken did not call for a Gaza ceasefire, he emphasized that Israel’s deeper integration into the Middle East requires the resolution of the conflict in Gaza and the establishment of a “practical pathway” to a Palestinian state.

Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s normalization conditions include tangible steps towards a two-state solution, such as lifting the Gaza blockade and empowering the Palestinian Authority. The demand is for concrete actions, not mere promises.

Despite previous emphasis on stronger US security guarantees and assistance with the civilian nuclear program, recent events, including the Gaza war, have led to a pause in Saudi-Israel normalization talks.

A Washington Institute for Near East Policy poll indicated that 96% of surveyed Saudis believe Arab countries should sever ties with Israel in protest against its actions in Gaza. The Biden administration acknowledges that normalization cannot come at the expense of Palestinian rights.

With the war inflaming Saudi public opinion, experts suggest that Riyadh may now demand more meaningful concessions from Israel, possibly including the creation of a provisional Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia, being able to afford waiting for favorable conditions, remains cautious about striking a deal with the current Israeli government, perceived as responsible for the Gaza situation.

Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is a significant US policy objective, offering the Biden administration a major foreign policy victory. However, Riyadh is wary of dealing with the current Israeli cabinet and prefers waiting until conditions align for a deal.

The UAE, a key party to the Abraham Accords, has indicated strains with Israel, calling for an end to the war and a return to the two-state solution. Without progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the UAE may not fully invest in Gaza’s rebuild, diverging from the trajectory set by the Abraham Accords.

In summary, despite the challenges and strains, Saudi Arabia remains interested in normalization with Israel, but recent events and public sentiment have heightened the expectations for meaningful concessions towards a two-state solution.